When the NFL plays games simultaneously, many fans use Sunday Ticket’s broadcast of every game to focus on the contests that are the closest and have the most impact. If there was Election Day Ticket, we’d be watching the presidential contest in 12 states that likely will decide the election.
In the Midwest (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin) and Pennsylvania, traditionally blue states that turned to Donald Trump in 2016 are back in play. The Southwest has Arizona, Nevada and Texas shifting toward potential landmark wins for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Some Southeast states (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina) are traditionally red but turning purple, if not blue.
A Fox News average of polls shows Biden with an 8-point lead. Hillary Clinton carried a 3-point Election Day eve lead on an average of polls and won the popular vote by 2 points, but Trump’s flip on six swing states emphasized the importance of electoral votes from state victories.
Most of the 12 battleground states are ones that Trump won in 2016 but lie in danger for him now. Only Nevada and Minnesota are seen as states that he could flip from 2016 losses. In Minnesota, that would be worth 10 electoral votes and the first Republican win since Richard Nixon in 1972.
But massive-impact states like Texas (38 electoral votes) and Florida (29) are precarious for red wins. Florida proved pivotal in 2004 for George W. Bush’s victory against Al Gore, but Texas has not been won by a Democrat since 1976. Trump remains favored, but tightly, after a 16-point Mitt Romney win there in 2012 and a 9-point Trump win in 2016.
Your vote matters, but it really matters in Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That is where 70% of campaigning has occurred.