How Accurate Are The Polls? NY Times Says Biden Should Hold Off on Writing That Acceptance Speech

People wait to vote outside the Bordeaux Library on the first day of Tennessee's early voting Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2020, in Nashville, Tenn. The early, in-person voting period runs Monday through Saturday until Thursday, Oct. 29. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

The New York Times published a story by Thomas Edsall on Wednesday that points out trends with early voting and new voter registration that Democratic party strategists find concerning for former VP and current Presidential candidate Joe Biden.

Currently, Biden holds more than a nine-point lead in the national poll average, but new voter registrations in the ultra-key battleground states appear to be favoring Republicans. Edsall quoted a party strategist saying, “Since last week, the share of white, non-college, over 30 registrations in the battleground states has increased by 10 points compared to September 2016, and the Democratic margin dropped 10 points to just 6 points. And there are serious signs of political engagement by white non-college voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections.”

The Times story also points to polling data that shows Biden’s lead may not be as firm as the numbers suggest. The story highlights dips in support for Biden among Hispanic Catholics and black women, and though the dips may be minimal, they may sway the outcome of a close election.

Lastly, the article also looked at voting by mail, and while Democrats outnumber Republicans 2.4 to 1 in casting early ballots, the data indicates Democrats are not requesting absence ballots with the volume needed for a Biden victory.

This election is shaping up to have the biggest voter turnout in U.S. history. The Times also reported Wednesday that early voters in Atlanta suburbs waited up to seven hours to vote. In Texas this week, several counties reported early voting numbers that amount to more than 10% of those counties’ entire vote in the 2016 election.

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