Home Stretch! Do Polls or Crowds at Rally’s Paint A More Reliable Picture Of What’s Going To Happen?

President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally at Carson City Airport, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2020, in Carson City, Nev. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Get ready for the home stretch. The Presidential election is 16 days away, and to say that Team Trump and Team Biden will essentially do anything they have to do in order to win is an understatement. Brace yourself for an intense, dirty, wild and unpredictable final two weeks. While most media outlets talk of this ever increasing, untouchable lead in the polls that Joe Biden owns, it’s worth taking a deeper dive into a poll that has proven to be a little more accurate and reliable than most.


The Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll shows the race to be tight, down to a 5 point lead nationally for Biden, which is just outside the margin of error. Back in 2016, when Hilary Clinton was projected to have a runaway victory over Donald Trump, this poll was a voice of reason, and saw the results going differently. They were right. The poll suggests Trump is not quite as strong as he was in 2016 among independents, blacks, Hispanics, whites, seniors, suburbs and men, but this poll does not paint the picture that Biden is in line for a landslide victory.

On top of polls, have you seen what President Trump’s rally’s look like? They are wild, raucous, and high energy affairs packed with voters who are all-in on the current president. Biden’s campaign stops are dead, with small crowds consisting of more media members than fired up supporters.


Trump seems to project more strength as he whips his crowds into a frenzy, while Biden is calm, safe and deliberate, in fact today in North Carolina he was spotted wearing not one, but two face masks at the same time.

Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden arrives to board his campaign plane at the New Castle Airport in New Castle, Del., Sunday, Oct. 18, 2020, en route to Durham, N.C. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

What’s more important? Polls that touch a small fraction of eligible voters with the attempt at drawing a big picture conclusion? Or analyzing the actions of people that show up to see their candidate speak? We’ll have an answer on November 3rd. Or a few days or weeks after.

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